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Closed the rest of my SLV calls this morning
shigsf wrote in silver_traders
Might come to regret it come Thursday, but didn't like seeing us recoup yesterday's gains overnight only to have them start sliding again this morning.  Got out of all contracts with SLV $.10 to $.25 above today's close, so at least it was the right decision for today.  While I was, of course, hoping for more, banked a nice profit on all contracts.  Feel like there's more downside risk in the immediate term (next several days) than upside, so will sit on my core physical holdings for now and see what happens over the next couple of days. 

Shig

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"didn't like seeing us recoup yesterday's LOSSES overnight..."

Hey Shig.

I think you are likely right about the short term risk to the downside. I found myself wanting to take some profits in my PM positions today, and certainly would have been technically justified in doing so.

But a promise made to one's self is a promise none the less. I'm simply not trading around my core PM position right now. It certainly wouldn't be ethical to do so after the tongue lashing I gave to Rhymin for trading like a girly man!

I am, however, kicking myself in the ass for not taking profits today in my BAC trade. Hopefully I'll get a decent chance to sell tomorrow.

Tuck


"It certainly wouldn't be ethical to do so after the tongue lashing I gave to Rhymin for trading like a girly man!"

Kidding aside, it's my opinion you should ALWAYS do what makes sense to you as a trader. You're answerable only to yourself. Plus, it isn't about wringing the last penny out of every opportunity; according to one of the country's great thinkers, it's about WINNING. You don't have to clean out every player to leave the game a winner (IMO).

Bottom line, you'll never hear (read?) me lambasting you for doing what makes sense to you at the time. Hindsight doesn't count for diddly. If taking some money off the table today makes sense to you, especially if the pre-market strength persists through the open, yours is the opinion that trumps all others where your finances are concerned.

"Bottom line, you'll never hear (read?) me lambasting you for doing what makes sense to you at the time."

Very true. And lord knows you've had more than a couple of opportunities to do so as of late!

Shig,

I was hoping we'd get a 5-8% correction before Thursday's Fed announcement, to smooth the way for a rally thereafter. Not having one would SEEM to make market disappointment to whatever the Fed says more likely. For my part, I've never expected a significant QE3 this close to the election. (Most "experts" disagree with that view, I understand.)

It's my opinion you'll do just fine trading in and out of the long side of PM, especially if gradually augmenting core holdings along the way. If gold and silver surprise us both by spurting instead of shrinking this week, I wouldn't give it a second thought. There will be plenty of buying opportunities.

Speaking of corrections, that may have been one this morning. Lopping off that much price, that quickly, is suggestive of the sort of "correction" that can occur in really strong bull markets. Not saying that's all the bears have for now, just saying it COULD be (assuming prices continue to rebound into the close).

In my experience, the market frequently tries to make it hard for latecomers to build a position in the early stages of new bull markets.

I think your comments are right on the money.

There were certainly no shortage of buyers after just a 2-3% correction this morning. Volume was twice the normal level in PSLV, and a good share of it was on the way back up.

I have a feeling tomorrow could be quite an adventure. I'm with you in thinking that we DON'T get any QE tomorrow. What I think we could get is some clarification on exactly what conditions would cause the FED to enact additional QE. I have no idea how the markets might respond to such a statement.

I sold half my CRUS position right before the close @ $43.00, booking another 11.5% profit in the name. I also closed out my BAC trade @ $8.95, missing the top, but still netting a bit over 2% profit.

My portfolio is now at 60% PM, 15% cyclical equities, and 25% cash.

With regards to tomorrow, I've removed all buy and stop loss orders, as I'm expecting a bit of volatility. I'm planning on letting things shake out the rest of the week, and taking a fresh look next week.

Tuck

Tuck,

It's possible today was it for now, correction wise. Had we not had the sudden downdraft this morning (in the PM sector), I'd be pretty convinced one is coming tomorrow. Since we ran a bunch of stops this morning, MAYBE further correction now will be unnecessary. As you say, tomorrow should be interesting. Make me pick between metals up and metals down, I'll pick metals up on account of what happened this morning. My level of conviction? A little over 51%.

I'll be looking to buy any significant weakness. (I would have bought an initial piece of PSLV this morning if I'd noticed just how low it got.) If I had a bigger position in GDXJ, I'd also be looking to sell some of it into significant strength. I'll be trying to add GDXJ on weakness, let go of a little on strength, all the way up (assuming that IS the direction).

I think you guys are probably right about today's selloff being it. Tomorrow will surely be an interesting day.

Up, I make money; down, I add to my position. I'm fine with either thing, which should make watching the silliness following the Fed pronouncement fun--and stress free.

"It's my opinion you'll do just fine trading in and out of the long side of PM, especially if gradually augmenting core holdings along the way."

Yes, I think this is my newly adopted strategy (as opposed to trying to catch the downswings with puts). Has worked pretty well over the last week. I think trying to play both the up and downswings with option trades is getting little too aggressive. But assuming we have plenty of bull market to go, jumping in and out of call option trades on the rips and putting some profits back into core position would seem to work beautifully as silver (hopefully) works its way to new all-time highs.

Let's start with an assumption we hope is valid: that the secular bull market in PM is alive and well, and that a brand new cyclical bull was just birthed. (The assumption may prove faulty, but it's an assumption I'm comfortable risking my money on.)

If that assumption/belief is valid, profits should come much easier to longs than shorts. There will certainly be meaningful corrections against the primary trend. Some may be severe, not to mention worrisome, as they happen. Time the short side right, and there's questionably money to be made. But the easier money should be on the long side, if the bullish premise is correct.

Options are a bit different from buying the security outright, because of their limited life and irksome time decay. Still, I imagine the long side of them will be an easier game than the short side--IF we get the rising PM market I'm hoping for.

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